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GOAL - The Iranian Pro League is in the middle
of a three week long break. The games are scheduled to resume in
mid-December after the West Asian Games are completed. The brief pause
provides us with a good opportunity to look into what may be expected in the
coming half of the season.
As it stands now only 15 points separate leaders Esteghlal and basement
dwellers Shamooshak giving the impression of a very close race. However,
there are a number of factors, both on and off the field that may play a
major role in how the second half will shape up.
The bottom eight
A closer look at the current standing will suggest that with the exception
of Abu-Moslem and Esteghlal of Ahvaz, the bottom half of the table is more
or less in order.
Abu-Moslem were last year’s Cup finalists, and despite losing a couple of
key players in the summer, they were expected to do no worse than a
mid-table spot. However, a change of ownership and poor close season
recruiting may have hurt them more than initially anticipated. At this rate,
they will be fortunate to avoid relegation.
Under Croatian coach Luca Bonacic, Ahvaz had a strong final leg last season,
which ensured them a sixth place finish. Despite the Croatian’s departure in
the off-season, Ahvaz had a strong start; however, things started to fall
apart shortly after. First technical director Naser Hejazi resigned. Then
Armenian coach Martik Khachatourian was replaced by Serbian Srada Gamalovic,
and now the rumors are that the team’s maverick owner Ali Shafeizadeh is
looking for his third head coach of the season. Short of a miracle, Ahvaz
should finish somewhere in the bottom third of the table.
Barring injuries, Rah-Ahan should finish somewhere in mid-table. However,
there are rumors that head coach Firooz Karimi may move to Ahvaz. It will be
hard to predict how the team will react if Karimi leaves as he has been a
big part of the team’s mid-season success.
After a better than forecasted start, Malavan’s financial problems have
caught up with them. The team’s management has declared the situation to be
critical and suggested that they may not be able to finish the season unless
they receive financial support from the state. It remains to be seen if the
players can keep their focus on the pitch while the management tries to
address the financial problems.
Shahid Ghandi, Fajr, and Bargh should be able to avovid relegation. Ghandi
are likely to have the strongest finish amongst the three. Shamooshak on the
other hand are one of the most likely candidates for relegation. That will
be unfortunate because along with Ahvaz they are one of the only two
privately owned teams in the Iranian Pro League, which is trying to promote
private ownership.
Likely to finish in the top half
Predicting how the top eight teams will do is far more challenging.
Reigning champions Foolad and Cup winners Saba Battery stand in seventh and
eighth place respectively. Both teams enjoy strong squads and boast a number
of internationals. However, with the AFC Champions League and Hazfi Cup
competitions scheduled to start in the coming months both teams will feel
the burden of their very busy schedules.
Furthermore, both teams’ internationals are likely to be called for a number
of international friendly games in preparation for this summer’s World Cup.
Saba’s two veterans Ali Daei and Yahya Golmohammadi are likely to feel the
affects of the busy schedule more than others. Both players are well in
their thirties and more susceptible to fatigue and injury.
Since the inception of the Iranian Pro League five years ago, no team has
managed to successfully defend the League or Cup title. Foolad and Saba will
not be an exception to the rule.
The two Isfahan teams Zob-Ahan and Sepahan have been suffering from a severe
case of inconsistency. They have not shown any sign that suggest they will
be improve in the second half of the season. They are likely to finish in
the top eight, but there will be no silverware for Isfahan this year.
Challengers
Pas started the year with promising performances in both AFC Champions
League and Iranian Pro League. Unfortunately for them, they crashed out of
the ACL in a heartbreaking fashion and that seems to have affected their IPL
performance as well. Moreover, their international midfielder Javad Nekounam
recently signed for the UAE’s Al Wahda and star striker Arash Borhani may
move abroad soon. It is hard to imagine Pas finishing in the top four
without these two.
After woeful starts, the two Tehran giants Esteghlal and Perspolis have
shown signs of improvement in recent weeks. Esteghlal leaped to take the
lead two weeks ago, and Perspolis clawed their way back to the fifth. Having
momentum and history on their side, and no ACL to distract them, they will
be focused on winning the title.
Esteghlal have a slight advantage over Perspolis as they have been the more
consistent and competitive of the two in recent weeks. Esteghlal, however,
is more likely to have key players called up for national team duties. Head
Coach Amir Ghalehnoei has been bitterly complaining about losing his stars
when he needs them most.
The Dark Horse
To everyone’s surprise Saipa have been the most consistent team of the Fifth
Iranian Pro League. They lead the league in most goals scored with 24, and
have the third meanest defence with only nine goals conceded. Their +15 goal
difference is five better than leaders Esteghlal.
With only one defeat to their name, and three victories and one draw in the
last four games, Saipa are definitely the hottest team in Iran.
Coach Bijan Zolfagharnasab is one of the best in getting the most out of a
collection of good but not outstanding players. He won the title in two
consecutive years with Saipa in the Azadegan League, IPL’s predecessor, and
is well poised to win another title this year.
Afshin Afshar
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